Friday, December 24, 2010

Bowl Season: Looking at the Big Picture

If things continue as they have, Hawaii will be the first Vegas odds favorite to lose this bowl season (they're currently down by 20 in the 3rd quarter against Tulsa). I must admit I've had a poor first week. I've only picked two games correctly: Northern Illinois in the Humanitarian Bowl and Boise State in the MAACO Bowl. Hawaii was my pick in tonight's game. If the current result holds, I'll be firmly in last place.

However, I did learn last year that one must look at the big picture with the bowl season. The real number to watch is not points scored but possible points, based on what we've scored thus far plus what confident points are still available going forward. Looking at matters in that light, a Hawaii loss is not such a horrible thing for me. As they were a heavy favorite coming into the game, a few in my group staked much higher points on the game than I did. If Hawaii loses, I'll be in 6th place out of 10 in possible points. If they somehow come back and win, I'll be in 8th place. All else being equal, I'd rather be right about the pick but there is a silver lining.

Tulsa's still up 48-28 at the end of the 3rd.

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