Roland Garros Day 1: Gensse

Curtain Call

Player: Augustin Gensse
Age: 27
Nation: France
Current Ranking: 178
Today's Result: lost to Stanislas Wawrinka (14th seed, Switzerland) in four sets


Photo via ITF Tennis

Gensse went through qualifying to reach the first Slam main draw of his career. He made Wawrinka work for it, too, by taking the first set. He's got a nice forehand but Wawrinka's backhand is better, not to mention his superior talent and experience overall.


My Tennis Fantasy

Once again, I'm going with the world's top 5 for the Slam: Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Soderling. All five have made it at least as far as the semis here before. For the record, Djokovic is my pick to win. It's hard to pick against Rafa on clay, even with the Djoker's current hot streak. But with each passing week, it's looking more and more like a Djokovic year.

My Tennis Fantasy: Hanescu

Current Overall Ranking: 36th
My MVP for the Week: Victor Hanescu (Romania) with $51,608, losing to Nicolas Almagro (Spain) in the finals of the Open de Nice Cote d'Azur


Photo via Dominican Sports News

Romania's top player for several years now, the 6' 6" Hanescu is unusual for a big man in that clay is his best surface. Most tall players - John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, for instance - are power players whose strengths are best exhibited on faster courts. This is Hanescu's fifth career ATP final, all on clay.

Checking in with the Orioles: Mid-May

I DVRed the Orioles-Red Sox game from Monday night and watched it over three evenings. Part of me wonders about the sense of this given that by the morning after the game, I knew not only the final score but also all about Adrian Gonzalez's walk-off double. But, as it says at the top of the page, every game is a story. It's fun to watch one from beginning to end - even if you already know the ending.


Guerrero photo via Yahoo! News UK

And so, as the game entered the bottom of the sixth, I found myself wondering how on earth the Orioles had managed to lose this one. They were up 6-0. Chris Tillman, despite allowing runners to get as far as third base in two different innings, had kept a clean sheet through five. But he was done for the night, as all of the O's young hurlers are on strict pitch-count limits. The offensive production was there, too. Apparently, they've decided they can run on Jason Varitek. The Birds stole four bases on the night. As of now (5/20/11, 6 pm EDT), they've only stolen 19 all year. So, how did they lose?

The bullpen let this one get away. I don't want to be too tough on the pen as they had a magnificent night on Wednesday against the Yanks. But the sixth inning on Monday was just ugly. Three different relievers pitched in the inning, combining to allow five runs. It all started with the ill-fated Michael Gonzalez who was responsible for four of those runs. The Sox smelled blood in the water. The kill shot in the ninth was almost inevitable.

Even with such a disappointing loss, there were definitely some bright spots for the O's. Vladimir Guerrero went 3-for-5 with 2 doubles, an RBI and 2 runs scored. While the pen struggled, there were definitely those who fought valiantly to stem the tide. Lefty Clay Rapada put a merciful end to the sixth inning, not allowing any runs to score once he entered the game. Righty Koji Uehara (more on him later) pitched a scoreless eighth.

**********

Time to check in on the 10 things Matt Trueblood feels the Orioles must do to win the pennant. Oh, to dream...

1. Brian Matusz becomes an ace. May 28th is the current target date for his return from injury. He has his second rehab start tomorrow in Bowie (AA).

2. Koji Uehara wins the closer role. Current closer Kevin Gregg has seven saves so far, though he's blown three. Uehara blew the only chance he had. Overall, however, Uehara does have the better ERA: 2.50 vs. 3.31. The case is increasingly strong for the change to be made.

3. Nick Markakis elevates. The O's right fielder has had a slow start, though really the whole offense has been sluggish to this point. Markakis's overall numbers are down from last year: .249 BA as opposed to .297, .317 OBP vs. .370 and .343 slugging way down from .436. There is, however, some good news. His ground outs/air outs ratio is down to 0.95 from 1.04, suggesting the potential for greater power numbers over the long run.

5. Justin Duchscherer gets healthy. Now it seems June is the earliest possible return from the DL.

6. Buck Showalter makes the team his own. Slugging and fielding were Trueblood's two main points of interest here. Slugging is down: .376 as a team as opposed to .386 in 2010. The team fielding percentage, however, is up slightly: .985 vs. .982. The team winning percentage - the most important stat to this fan - is definitely up: .452 vs. .407. I still say Buck is the man and the longer the team sticks with him, the better.

7. Zach Britton finds his way. Since our last check in, Britton has allowed 4 earned runs over 27 1/3 innings. For those without a calculator handy, that's a 1.32 ERA over 4 starts. Yeah, this guy's pretty good. Most impressive to me were his nine shutout innings on 108 pitches against the Mariners on May 12th.

8. Left field poses a good problem. With Brian Roberts (2B) and Derrick Lee (1B) on the DL, the team will frequently require the simultaneous services of both Luke Scott and Félix Pié. Pié is holding down leadoff duties in Roberts's absence. Scott is covering first.

9. Chris Tillman breaks the ceiling. As noted above, Tillman did well on Monday night. Combine that with the fact that Brad Bergesen was thoroughly bludgeoned by the Yankees last night and Tillman's long-term prospects of staying in the starting rotation may have improved slightly.

10. Adam Jones becomes Batman. The batting average is up, .292 as opposed to .284 last year. The slugging percentage is up slightly: .448 vs. .442. The stolen base percentage is up: 100% vs. 50%. The fielding percentage is exactly the same: .984. The range factor is up slightly: 2.93 vs. 2.91. This definitely qualifies as good news.

My Baseball Fantasy: Sabermetrics

Private League: won 8-2 (41-18-1 overall, 1st place out of 10, 3 games ahead of second)
Public League: 3rd out of 12
My Player of the Week: Adrian Gonzalez (First Baseman, Red Sox) with 5 home runs, 10 RBI, 7 runs and a .346 batting average


Photo via Through the Fence Baseball

Gonzalez was a double-edged sword for me this week. He was on my opponent's team in the private league but in the public league he's all mine. The guy has been on a tear of late. I'd actually be alright with him going cold for a couple days. The Orioles are at Fenway for a quick two-gamer. Of course, if it's raining in Boston like it is here, they won't be playing at all tonight.

I'm in the middle of reading Michael Lewis's Moneyball and I'm completely sold on sabermetrics. My mind has been racing for ways to adapt fantasy baseball to more meaningful statistics. There are models out there, though most seem to be for points leagues. I have nothing against points leagues, of course, but it would be interesting to see how the H2H format might be tweaked, while remaining within the capabilities of Yahoo! customization.

The most straightforward model I found (via Tom Tango at MLB Trade Rumors Forums):

At Bats (AB) -1
Singles (1B) 4
Doubles (2B) 8
Triples (3B) 10
Home Runs (HR) 12
Stolen Bases (SB) 2
Caught Stealing (CS) -3
Walks (BB) 3
Hit By Pitch (HBP) 3

Innings Pitched (IP) 6
Home Runs (HR) -13
Walks (BB) -3
Hit Batters (HBP) -3
Strikeouts (K) 2
Singles Allowed (1BA) -3
Doubles Allowed (2BA) -6
Triples Allowed (3BA) -8

In Yahoo!'s H2H set up, the weighting system would be lost but could the main ideas be preserved? The H2H batter defaults are runs, HRs, RBI, SBs and batting average. Instead, how about on-base percentage, slugging percentage, total bases, net steals and homers? Pitcher defaults are wins, saves, Ks, ERA and WHIP. Alternatively, WHIP, Ks, home runs allowed, total bases allowed and on-base percentage against might be better.

Of course, one has to wonder, does it really matter? Pretending that fantasy baseball should be or even COULD be more like actual baseball is probably akin to madness. One should enjoy the fantasy game for what it is. Would using different stats actually make the game more fun? It's all a matter of taste, I suppose.

My Tennis Fantasy: Berdych, Part 3

My Current Ranking: 32nd
My MVP for the Week: Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) with $72,170, losing to Richard Gasquet (France) in the quarterfinals of Internazionali BNL d'Italia


Photo via Sky Sports

This is my second week in a row featuring Berdych. Make that eight out of ten tournaments this season in which he's made the quarters or better. He'll be the #2 seed in Nice this week. I think it's always a questionable decision to play in a tournament the week before a Slam if you have a reasonable shot at that Slam's second week, which Berdych certainly does. I guess he can worry about that later. Here's to another strong week.

On the Coffee Table: Roger Angell

Kurt Vonnegut once wrote when he was, of course, still alive and a relatively young man, that he wouldn't mind being as old as E.B. White as long as it meant he could actually be E.B. White. I have very similar feelings about Mr. White's stepson, Roger Angell. Angell, now 90 years old, has had a long, successful and varied career as a writer. But he is best known for his many essays on his life passion: baseball. In fact, a very strong case could be made for him as the most profoundly insightful sportswriter of the 20th century.


Image via Barnes & Noble

Five Seasons: A Baseball Companion is one of several collections of Angell's New Yorker baseball columns. First published in 1977, the book contains 16 essays from the 1972-76 baseball campaigns. The 1970s were, without question, a time of transition for the sport: the introduction of the designated hitter, the end of the reserve clause and the subsequent rise of free agency, more night games, more AstroTurf, American League expansion, etc. The economics of the game have changed beyond recognition since that era, of course, but Angell's musings still resonate with the baseball world of 2011.

I have to admit that, as much as I admire Angell's writings, his season and post-season synopses can be a bit tedious: that one-game-after-another feel. He's at his best when he follows his insatiable curiosity to probe the deeper mysteries of the game: the world of the talent scout, the sudden and total demise of a star pitcher, the physics of the knuckleball, the passion of three die-hard Tiger fans, etc. My favorite chapter of the book is also its shortest: "Stories for a Rainy Afternoon." It is the only essay in the book that had not previously been featured in The New Yorker.

My favorite passage, however, comes at the end of Angell's write-up of the epic Game Six of the 1975 World Series (p. 306, University of Nebraska Press, 2004):

It is foolish and childish, on the face of it, to affiliate ourselves with anything so insignificant and patently contrived and commercially exploitative as a professional sports team, and the amused superiority and icy scorn that the non-fan directs at the sports nut (I know this look -- I know it by heart) is understandable and almost unanswerable. Almost. What is left out of this calculation, it seems to me, is the business of caring -- caring deeply and passionately, really caring -- which is a capacity or an emotion that has almost gone out of our lives. And so it seems possible that we have come to a time when it no longer matters so much what the caring is about, how frail or foolish is the object of that concern, as long as the feeling itself can be saved. Naïveté -- the infantile and ignoble joy that sends a grown man or woman to dancing and shouting with joy in the middle of the night over the haphazard flight of a distant ball -- seems a small price to pay for such a gift.

That pretty much says it all.

My Baseball Fantasy: Sunday Night Baseball

Private League: won 5-4-1 (33-16-1 overall, 1st place out of 10, 1 game ahead of 2nd)
Public League: 4th place out of 12
My Player of the Week: Shane Victorino (Center Fielder, Phillies) with 1 home run, 5 RBI, 3 runs, 2 stolen bases and a .333 batting average


Photo via Jim DeLorenzo Public Relations

I'm definitely a fan of the head-to-head league format. Individual Major League games become a lot more important and I really like that. ESPN's Sunday night game, in particular, has the potential to match the significance of the Monday night game in fantasy football. Such was the case with last night's Braves-Phillies contest.

I had a tough matchup this week, facing the guy who had been just ahead of me in the standings. The ultimate outcome was still in doubt with just the one Sunday night game left to play. We both had several players involved in the game. I had starting pitcher Cole Hamels and center fielder Shane Victorino for the Phillies as well as closer Craig Kimbrel for the Braves. He had Phillies' first baseman Ryan Howard and closer Ryan Madsen as well as Braves' left fielder Martin Prado and third baseman Chipper Jones. We were very close on a few stats. Wins, runs, RBI and batting average were all up for grabs. Fortunately, things fell my way. While Hamels couldn't get the win, Victorino had a great night: 2-for-5 with a run. It was just enough.

Victorino, aka The Flyin' Hawaiian, is on my roster in both leagues. I got him in the 10th round of the private league and the 8th round of the public league. He was also a track star in high school, winning the Hawaii state titles in the 100 m, 200 m and 400 m races.

This week I draw Mock as my opponent in our first of two scheduled matchups this season. If it all comes down to Sunday night this time, the competition will be direct. I have two Yankees on my squad. True to form, Mock has six Red Sox on his.